10h 40-11h 20 Tatsuji Takahashi (Pr. Tokyo Denki University, Tokyo) : “A simple (bi)conditional form for necessity and sufficienty: The pARIs rule”
Causal inference plays a general, crucial role in cognition and survival. While intervention (experimentation) is needed for identifying a causal relationship, the cost of intervening calls for narrowing the set of candidate causes by prior knowledge (causal model) or by pure observation (co-occurrence information). We focus on this observation phase of causal induction and show that a simple, single conditional probability that represents biconditional relationship describes the intuition of causal intensity of humans. The pattern of “biconditional probability” often appears in responses in inference tasks and during development as well, but it has been poorly explained. We give a validation of the pattern from a probabilistic logic point of view.